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Rate-setters are facing pressure to consider a rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with MPC member Nagesh Kumar advocating for this move. He argues that a reduction could stimulate demand and private investment, citing easing inflation, sluggish demand, and actions by other central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, as key factors.
The dollar is poised to begin 2025 on a strong note but faces significant challenges ahead, including rising inflation and a growing fiscal deficit. A recent survey reveals that 38% of respondents are most concerned about deficit issues, while 32% anticipate that weaker US and global growth could impact the currency, particularly if President-elect Donald Trump implements proposed tariffs.
The dollar declined as traders reacted to Donald Trump's selection of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, viewing it as a cautious choice that moderated exuberant market expectations. Bitcoin's rally stalled, dropping below $97,000 before recovering slightly. Meanwhile, Australian shares and US equity futures rose, with Japanese futures indicating early gains and Hong Kong contracts remaining steady.
The New Zealand dollar is expected to decline by approximately 6% in the coming months due to a slowing economy, leading investors to anticipate significant interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Recently, the currency hit a one-year low against the dollar as traders reacted to the central bank's pessimistic economic outlook and potential tariff impacts under the Trump administration. The swaps market is currently pricing in a 50-basis-point cut this week, with a slight possibility of a 75-basis-point reduction.
Trump's incoming administration is marked by hawkish appointments, yet there are signs of a more accommodating approach towards China, influenced by business interests. Despite ambitions to broker peace globally, challenges such as escalating conflicts in Ukraine and Israel's military actions complicate his peacemaking goals. The evolving international landscape may hinder Trump's ability to leverage negotiations effectively, raising questions about his capacity to fulfill his promises of ending wars and making significant deals.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a phone call to discuss bilateral relations. They focused on enhancing trade and economic cooperation, with plans for further contacts between relevant departments to address current issues on the agenda.
After a volatile start to the week, commodity markets closed higher as traders responded to geopolitical risks and economic data. The US economy showed resilience with a Composite PMI of 55.3, while the Eurozone's slipped to 48.1, leading to a decline in the euro. Diverging views among Federal Reserve officials have left markets uncertain about potential rate cuts in December.
The market rebounded strongly, recovering nearly 2% for the week ending November 22, driven by short-covering ahead of the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance's victory in Maharashtra assembly elections. As the week of November 25 begins, attention will shift to the assembly election results, India's GDP figures, and U.S. economic data, with expectations of continued positive momentum despite potential volatility from monthly F&O expiry. The BSE Sensex closed at 79,117, up 1.98%, while the Nifty 50 rose 1.6% to 23,907.
At COP29 in Baku, a $300 billion annual climate finance deal was adopted to aid developing nations, but it faced criticism for being inadequate. While some hailed it as a step forward, representatives from poorer countries expressed disappointment, stating it falls short of urgent funding needs amid escalating climate impacts. The agreement aims to raise $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 and sets the stage for next year's summit in Brazil, yet lacks concrete actions to transition away from fossil fuels.
Foreign investors have withdrawn Rs 26,533 crore from the Indian equity market in November, driven by increased allocations to China, concerns over muted corporate earnings, and high domestic stock valuations. This marks a significant reduction in outflows compared to October's Rs 94,017 crore. Future investment flows will hinge on U.S. policies, inflation and interest rates, geopolitical developments, and the performance of Indian companies in the third quarter.
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